More Media For Stressful Times

Citing the reverse correlation between economic outlook and media spending, Veronis Suhler Stevenson (VSS) issues a relatively upbeat outlook for overall media revenues this year. Communications spending should grow 5.4% to $923.91 in 2008, driven by international markets and alternative media sources that offset declines elsewhere. Businesses still need mission-critical services and consumers need some relief from recession depression, says VSS in it Communications Industry Forecast 2008-2012.  Professional business information andinstitutional services are the big leaders, with 8.5% growth.

While traditional ad spend is not receding as dramatically as it has in prior recessions, consumers are responding according to plan. The share of disposable income going to communications will rise 6.1% this year.

What will decline, and ultimatel pressue many media sgment, is the overall time spent with media. For the third year in a row, consumer time spent will all forms of media will decline .1% to 3,493 hours a year per person. Time spent with digital media will increase however.

For magazines, it doesn’t look so good, kids. The average growth rate of revenues for consumer titles was only 2.8% between 2002 and 2007, and that will fall to 1% through 2012. The bright side is that outsourced custom publishing will be a hot growth area, with 11% CAGR through 2012.